Having been trapped by an escalation of commitment, they had tried, consciously or unconsciously, to protect their earlier, flawed decisions. Thirteen Days Movie Analysis.docx - Thirteen Days Movie Analysis Introduction: The movie I watched for this movie analysis assignment is Thirteen Days. Decision researchers have documented two types of frames that distort decision making with particular frequency: In a study patterned after a classic experiment by decision researchers Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, one of us posed the following problem to a group of insurance professionals: You are a marine property adjuster charged with minimizing the loss of cargo on three insured barges that sank yesterday off the coast of Alaska. More people will, for instance, choose the status quo when there are two alternatives to it rather than one: A and B instead of just A. These thirteen days were the time period in which the fate of the world was decided. Fortunately, a way out of their dilemma was near, but it wasn't the one she was expecting. The following are the different types of decision-making traps . But the fact is, we all carry biases, and those biases influence the choices we make. The jury, Connelly, et al (2000) calculated the impacts of leadership skills, and knowledge in addition to the relationship of leader performance. In October of 1962 a pressing matter arose during John F. Kennedys presidential term. Try to imagine circumstances where the actual figure would fall below your low or above your high, and adjust your range accordingly. (1957, http://www.normandyhigh.com/1957/timeline_1957.html), Fielder, F.E. Unlike other approaches to leadership, such as the trait approach, the style approach looks at a leaders behaviors and actions. Most of us have fallen into this trap. These traps make us see patterns that aren't there, overestimate our abilities, or try to make reality conform to what we want rather than what's likely to happenthey can be especially tricky in . How would you answer these two questions? Strategic management: Formulation, implementation, and control (12th ed.). First, the humiliation of the failed Bay of Pigs invasion attempt still resonated in the President's mind. We kill Soviet soldiers, and they will respond. To reduce the effects of overconfidence in making estimates, always start by considering the extremes, the low and high ends of the possible range of values. In theory, applying your lessons learned should make your new decisions better by not making the same mistakes twice. 5 out of 5 people found this document helpful. Thirteen Days Roger Ebert January 12, 2001 Tweet Now streaming on: Powered by JustWatch The 1962 Cuban missile crisis was the closest we've come to a nuclear world war. The status quo trap biases us toward maintaining the current situationeven when better alternatives exist. Later that week, Linda had lunch with a friend who had just attended a learning experience at work called Decision Mojo. Seek out and listen carefully to the views of people who were uninvolved with the earlier decisions and who are hence unlikely to be committed to them. Forewarned is forearmed. Linda has to recommend a new software platform for her marketing and sales departments. First, Michael reviews some of the common challenges you face when making a decision, such as being distracted or getting bogged down . However, this degree was not achieved due to his infallible leadership and decision making skills. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill/Irwin., 12 Angry Men (1957) is one of the most acclaimed feature films of all time. Course Hero uses AI to attempt to automatically extract content from documents to surface to you and others so you can study better, e.g., in search results, to enrich docs, and more. In rewarding people, look at the quality of their decision making (taking into account what was known at the time their decisions were made), not just the quality of the outcomes. Kennedy and his advisors must come up with a plan of action against the Soviets. That would require a great deal of data, carefully tracked over a long period of time. Seek information and opinions from a variety of people to widen your frame of reference and to push your mind in fresh directions. Thousand Oaks, California, U.S.A., In the investigation of the various characteristics and styles of leadership the emphasis of the style approach is the focus on the actions and behavioral characteristics of the leader. (a) The Overconfidence Trap occurs when. Strategic management: Formulation, implementation, and control (12th ed.). Ask if youd choose the status quo if it the status quo. Balancing these two behaviors is the key to being an effective leader (Northouse, 2007). Secondly, most people will accept the decision frame as it is initially presented. In situations characterized by rapid changes in the marketplace, historical anchors can lead to poor forecasts and, in turn, misguided choices. Being a dangerously close country to the United States, JFK knew he needed to make a smart and safe decision, and fast. Get views of people who involved in the original decisions. There are more punishments for things done than for things that are not done. The seven traps in decision making, and how to avoid them. Although it would be a straightforward, inexpensive proposition to sell those shares and put the money into a different investment, a surprising number of people dont sell. In fact, it probably has not been approved by the Politburo. Whats your best estimate of Turkeys population? Many experiments have shown the magnetic attraction of the status quo. From my book Today Matters: "The first ingredient of successmaking good decisionshas no real value without the second, which is practicing good discipline. The movie Thirteen Days is a movie about a series of discussion President of the United States of America goes through to resolve its political issues with Soviet Union. analysis about the movie thirteen days movie analysis introduction the movie watched for this movie analysis assignment is thirteen days. This was the beginning of the Cuban Missile Crisis, which lasted for the next thirteen days. Knowing the purpose of the estimates, each department slanted its forecast to favor building more carsjust to be safe. But the market planners took the numbers at face value and then made their own just to be safe adjustments. Course Hero uses AI to attempt to automatically extract content from documents to surface to you and others so you can study better, e.g., in search results, to enrich docs, and more. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website. Respects only one word-Force. Their decisions about whether to settle a claim or take it to court usually hinge on their assessments of the possible outcomes of a trial. An extreme example is the methodology of worst-case analysis, which was once popular in the design of weapons systems and is still used in certain engineering and regulatory settings. Looking at this situation through the sociological framework of feminism, the oppression and treatment of women as sexual objects is as clear as, Regarding informational processing roles, monitoring role was hold by JFK as he indirectly scanned for information (i.e. In the early days of social media, Rory worked with Top 40 artists and majors to monetize on these new platforms. CA: sageKuhnert, K.W. But before you put the brakes on the plant expansion, you decide to call up an acquaintance, the chief executive of a similar company that recently mothballed a new factory, to check her reasoning. A., II, & Robinson, R. B. In one of the meetings, Adhlai clarifies the similarity in risks for the 2 options offered by the members while endorsing his view on the importance of back channel as the third option to deal with the situation. It can distort how we collect and interpret data, and lead us to neglect important evidence. The anchoring trap leads us to give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. No, they will do something, General, I promise you that. I chose the Bay of Pigs Invasion and the Cuban Missile Crisis because the first is an event in John, considered. This paper will explain the transformational leadership approach by discussing its strengths, weaknesses, and steps for application., The case is one in which an 18 year old is charged with murder in the first degree for the death of his father, by way of stabbing him. The movie "Thirteen Days" is a movie about a series of discussion President of the United States of America goes through to resolve its political issues with Soviet Union. It can highlight sunk costs or lead you toward confirming evidence. In addition to reviewing the causes and manifestations of these traps, we offer some specific ways managers can guard against them. Although the price was at the high end of current market rates, the consultants made a relatively modest counteroffer. Thirteen Days Movie Analysis Sep. 09, 2012 6 likes 24,582 views Download Now Download to read offline Entertainment & Humor Technology An analysis Dann Sal Deli Follow Advertisement Recommended 13 Days In October 1962 Timp79 3.7k views 18 slides Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962 Erika Sutherland 27.4k views 18 slides 5. cuban missile crisis This will help you avoid being anchored by an initial estimate. Relationship behaviors are characteristics and actions that leaders possess that make others feel respected and want to work towards goals. Leadership:Multidisciplinary perspective. By acknowledging that some good ideas will end in failure, executives will encourage people to cut their losses rather than let them mount. For example: Think hard throughout your decision-making process about the framing of the problem. If you have several alternatives that are superior to the status quo, dont default to the status quo just because youre having a hard time picking the best alternative. This simple test illustrates the common and often pernicious mental phenomenon known as anchoring. Bobby to Bob said there is got to be something else, give it to me.. To account for uncertainty, they were then asked to estimate a range within which the closing value would likely fall. The only way to gauge your accuracy would be to keep track of many, many similar judgments to see if, after the fact, the events you thought had a 40% chance of occurring actually did occur 40% of the time. In fact, anything that distorts your ability to recall events in a balanced way will distort your probability assessments. Harvard business review. Decision making traps : 1.Status quo : Minute : 20.54 In the first conference meeting with the key people, the dean said, "I've fought here at this table alongside your predecessors in the struggle against soviet.The soviet understands only one language-Action.Respects only one word-Force. The framing trap occurs when we misstate a problem, undermining the entire decision-making process. Their efforts to be thorough are causing delays, and the whole team is feeling frustrated. Our brains are always at work, sometimes, unfortunately, in ways that hinder rather than help us. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill/Irwin., Pearce, J. In making decisions, your mind may be your own worst enemy. The sunk-cost trap inclines us to perpetuate the mistakes of the past. Even if we are neither overly confident nor unduly prudent, we can still fall into a trap when making estimates or forecasts. Researchers have been studying the way our minds function in making decisions for half a century. Lets wait until the situation stabilizes. But as time passes, the existing structure becomes more entrenched, and altering it becomes harder, not easier. During this time many crucial events in United States. Here are five of the nine traps: Giving disproportionate weight to the first information you receive Example: A marketer projects future product sales by looking only at past sales figures. We get through the day with heuristics. Thousand Oaks. At every stage of the decision-making process, misperceptions, biases, and other tricks of the mind can influence the choices we make. Dont automatically accept the initial frame, whether it was formulated by you or by someone else. Linda had not realized the decision-making process could be hindering her team's progress. Compare and contrast different decision-making models. Ask a respected colleague to argue your potential decision. Dissent and debate was an aspect of almost all meetings organized in the movie. After reading this chapter, you should be able to do the following: Understand what is involved in decision making. here, but we are not studying it." 26-28). Bass & B.J. . Get someone you respect to play devils advocate, to argue against the decision youre contemplating. Not surprisingly, the number of cars produced far exceeded demand, and the company took six months to sell off the surplus, resorting in the end to promotional pricing. This essay on Confirming-Evidence Trap in Decision-Making was written and submitted by your fellow student. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Using this approach, engineers designed weapons to operate under the worst possible combination of circumstances, even though the odds of those circumstances actually coming to pass were infinitesimal. When there is an overwhelming number of choices, the status quo bias is stronger. The owners opened the meeting by laying out the terms of a proposed contract: a ten-year lease; an initial monthly price of $2.50 per square foot; annual price increases at the prevailing inflation rate; all interior improvements to be the tenants responsibility; an option for the tenant to extend the lease for ten additional years under the same terms. Lets look at three of the most common of these uncertainty traps: Even though most of us are not very good at making estimates or forecasts, we actually tend to be overconfident about our accuracy. Developing people through delegation. Transactional and transformational leadership. Plus she had another concern that if they couldnt get to a clear decision, theyd default to recommending to stick with the legacy less-than-optimum platform. While your answers to both questions should, rationally speaking, be the same, studies have shown that many people would refuse the fifty-fifty chance in the first question but accept it in the second. Why cant people free themselves from past decisions? In business, where sins of commission (doing something) tend to be punished much more severely than sins of omission (doing nothing), the status quo holds a particularly strong attraction. Remind yourself that even the best managers make mistakes. The historical record supports that estimate.
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