moody's probability of default table 2021

from St. Johns University School of Law. Prior to serving as CEO, Mr. Fauber served as Chief Operating Officer from November 2019 to December 2020, as President of Moodys Investors Service, Inc. from June 2016 to October 2019, as Senior Vice PresidentCorporate & Commercial Development of Moodys Corporation from April 2014 to May 2016, and was Head of the MIS Commercial Group from January 2013 to May 2016. METRICS AND TARGETS 10 SCOPE 2 GHG EMISSION REDUCTION 10. In this role, Mr. Goggins is primarily responsible for providing legal advice to senior management and managing the provision of legal services by a team of inhouse lawyers and outside counsel. Prior to joining Moodys in 2021, Ms. Elliott was Executive Vice President-Worldwide Communications at Mastercard and Chief Communications Officer at S&P Global. (2), SMEs and Mid-caps: A Focus on Funding There were differences in default rates across sectors. Prior to that, Ms. Kazanjian worked at Moodys for 11 years, in the Human Resources and Legal organizations, overseeing the Employment Law and Employee Relations teams. For example, the weight on financial information relative to behavioral information will be lower for a small private business than for a medium-sized enterprise. (6), Syria Moodys continues to garner recognition for its diversity, equity and inclusion achievements, including from the Human Rights Campaign Foundation, Bloomberg Gender Equality Index and Working Mother. (358), Africa: Emergence and transformation By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement. Breed was a finalist for the New York CIO of the Year ORBIE Award in the Global category. (7), Vietnam Learn how Moody's ratings and analysis speak to the relative credit risk of debt instruments and securities across industries and asset classes around the globe. He served as Senior Managing Director, Global Ratings and Research, of Moodys Investors Service from November 2000 until November 2001 and as Managing Director, International from 1996 to November 2000. Default, Transition, and Recovery: The U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Default Rate Could Reach 7% By December 2021 Ratings Performance Analytics: Nick W Kraemer, Jon Palmer, Kirsten R Mccabe Research Contributor: Shripati Pranshu Sector Default Transition & Recovery View Analyst Contact Information Table of Contents Key Takeaways . (2), Guam (1), English Head of Investor RelationsShivani Kak heads the Investor Relations Team and is responsible for managing effective communications with the analytical community, as well as existing and potential shareholders. Mr. Fauber earned his B.A. (1361), Asia Pacific Companies with weak credit quality will have the most trouble refinancing, raising default risk. (55), Micronesia (2), Serbia (1), North Dakota (2), Nepal There are three major credit rating agencies (Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch) that provide ratings on bond. (2), Paraguay (1), Minnesota Mr. Serafin joined Qualtrics in October 2016 as Chief Operating Officer. (1), New Technologies Forlenza served as the chief executive officer of a public, global medical technology company for approximately nine years. (2), Algeria Our commitment to environmental sustainability includes accelerating our net zero emissions target by ten years, from 2050 to 2040, consistently engaging in the ongoing global dialogue around ESG and climate disclosures, and executing on our public decarbonization plan.We are proud that our efforts led to recognition as a 2021 Global Compact LEAD company and an A List score from CDP, recognizing Moodys as one of a small number of high-performing companies that are leading actions to cut emissions, mitigate climate risks and develop the low-carbon economy. To address these risks, they need to go beyond data into context and beyond context into meaning. Ms Hill currently serves as a director of NetApp, Inc. (September 2013-present) and Celanese Corporation (July 2015-present).Ms Hill has significant experience in business management and leading engineering and operations organizations. (2), Angola Her various executive roles at Cisco Systems, Inc. allow her to bring extensive leadership experience and a strong background in information technology and business operations to the Board. Mr. Forlenza served as Chief Operating Officer from July 2010 to October 2011. RiskCalc v3.1 does a good job of predicting actual default rates. (2), Trinidad & Tobago Expansive Dataset: Includes more than 800,000 individual debt securities, both corporate and sovereign entities, and default history starting from 1920. US Credit Compass indicates further deterioration as lending standards tighten and sentiment worsens, The performance of Moody's corporate debt ratings Q2 2022, This publication provides updated measures of the, Corporate defaults more than double in August from the prior month. 0800-666-3506. Mr. Fauber joined Moodys in 2005 and has held multiple leadership roles at Moodys. The Moody's Analytics PD is an aggregation of all the sources of credit risk assessable for a given borrower. Ms. A probability of default (PD) is already assigned to a specific risk measure, per guidance, and represents the percentage expectation to default, measured most frequently by assessing past dues. (2), Luxembourg (6), Jordan As the head of risk for a major global financial institution, he was involved in the debt restructuring of various sovereigns around the world. Mr. Bermudez currently is the Chairman of the Smart Grid Center Board at Texas A&M University, and also serves on the Board of Directors of AB Mutual Funds, overseeing approximately 70 funds within the mutual fund complex (January 2020-present). He currently serves as a member of the Board of Trustees of Lehigh University since rejoining the Board in July 2020 after previously serving from 2011 to 2017. From September 2009 to October 2012, Mr. Serafin served as General Manager at Tellme Networks, Inc., a telephone-based applications provider, following its acquisition by Microsoft Corporation. Methodology (41), Periodic Reports He served as a director of Becton, Dickinson and Company (BD), a global medical technology company, from 2011 to April 2021 and as the Chairman of its board from 2012 to April 2021. SUMMARY REPORTS Reports FILTER BY Type Sector Region Date Range SYNOPSIS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next (2), Saint Kitts and Nevis (2), Somalia (2), Guyana He began his career in the investment banking division of Credit Suisse First Boston. He served as the Executive Group President, Group Leader, Civil and Commercial Group, from 2013 to 2016, as Executive Vice President, Client Services Officer, from 2009 to 2013, and as Vice President, Strategy and Organization, from 2000 to 2009. All data is derived from the Moody'sInvestors Serviceproprietary database of issuer, default, and recovery information. Mr. McDaniel currently is a director of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (2005-present) and a member of the Board of Trustees of Muhlenberg College (2015-present).Mr. (9), Iran You can also email us at [emailprotected] or (1), Oregon You have reached the daily limit of Research email sharings. (2), Belarus (1), Nebraska Moody's Investors Service analysts use this data to produce the Annual Default Study, read by market participants globally. 12/31/2021: 21.08: 28.68: 11/30/2022: 3.52-13.12: 12/31/2022-.51-18.13: (160), Recovery Studies Moodys SF Japan K.K. Sullivan has served as the Companys Senior Vice PresidentCorporate Controller since December 2018. There are no sessions currently scheduled, Bank Asset & Liability Management Solutions, Buy-Side Asset & Liability Management Solutions, Pension Plan, Endowments, and Consultants, Current Expected Credit Loss Model (CECL), Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Program (ICAAP), Simplified Supervisory Formula Approach (S)SFA, Debt Market Issuance, Analysis & Investing, LEARN MORE ABOUT VIRTUAL CLASSROOM COURSES. Mr. Kenney is responsible for overseeing Moodys Global Internal Audit function, including providing an independent oversight function that evaluates the processes and controls over the organizations financial, technology, ratings and operational activities. The Company is proud to have met its Supplier Diversity Initiative pledge to increase the representation of women-owned businesses in its supply chain, and of the commitment made in 2021 to materially increase the population of women, and U.S. Black and Hispanic / Latino leaders across the company by 2025. (6), Croatia (1), Arizona (6), Qatar Performance reflects expense reimbursements and/or fee waivers made in 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. (6), Puerto Rico Providing trusted insights and standards that help decision makers act with confidence. From 2019 to 2021, Ms. Kazanjian held various people leadership roles at WeWork, leading into her role as Chief People Officer. MOODYS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. She joined Moodys in 2018 after nearly 30 years of diverse experience across all dimensions of technology, finance and large-scale project management/system implementation. We also advanced the transition of our banking and insurance solutions to SaaS, deepening and streamlining the ways we support many mid-sized financial institutions. (2), Monaco (2), Seychelles (7), United Arab Emirates He is responsible for overseeing Moodys capital allocation and long-term financing strategies, and managing cash and short-term investments to support Moodys operations and growth. (2), Saint Lucia He has served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (Citizens), a large regional bank, since October 2013. SEE APPLICABLE MOODYS RATING SYMBOLS AND DEFINITIONS PUBLICATION FOR INFORMATION ON THE TYPES OF CONTRACTUAL FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS ADDRESSED BY MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS. (364), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) In 2021, Business Services and Hotel, Gaming & Leisure are expected to have the most defaults, followed by Oil & Gas. Moody's Investors Service provides investors with a comprehensive view of global debt markets through credit ratings and research. (8), Armenia (7), Macao SAR, China Prior to joining Moodys in 1998, Mr. West worked at Bank of America and HSBC in various credit roles. As such, these ratings incorporate Moody's assessment of the default probability and loss severity of these issuers and issues. (18), Colombia (2), Iraq (1), New Hampshire Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Each credit rating agency sets a minimum bond rank to be classified as investment-grade: Standard & Poor's denotes bonds rated BBB- or higher as investment grade. (6), Cayman Islands - Off Shore 2023 Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moodys Analytics, Inc. and/or their affiliates and licensors. (1), Massachusetts (2), Malawi Prior to joining Oppenheimer in 2013, she held a range of senior technology and finance leadership roles at Apollo and PricewaterhouseCoopers. Prior to that role, Ms. Sullivan supported the Global Wealth &Investment Management business from 2015 to 2017 in a variety of positions including Controller. Default Risk Service Structured Finance. Moody's proposes updates to its methodology for assigning instrument ratings for insurers 25 October 2021 New York, October 25, 2021 - Moody's Investors Service is seeking feedback from market participants on proposed changes to its cross-sector methodology for assigning instrument ratings for insurers. (2), Gibraltar Previously, he was a Managing Director in the M&A groups at Deutsche Bank and Bank of America and held similar roles in the M&A groups at Citigroup and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette. I offer my sincere thanks to our employees, stockholders and customers for their support, and I look forward to a prosperous and successful year ahead. in economics from the University of Virginia and his M.B.A. from the Johnson School of Management at Cornell University. The recovery rate is a risk-adjusted measure to right-size the. In that role, she supervised the corporate investigations and anti-money laundering divisions and the companys regulatory examination program. (2), Guatemala In this role, Ms. Crystallisation of tail risks can drive large shifts in credit conditions, The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine demonstrate that when. from the Rutgers School of Law-Newark and a B.A. (10), Eurozone Retired Chief Risk OfficerCitigroup, Inc.Director since April 2011Jorge A. Bermudez, age 70, is a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors. He and his wife have two children. (6), Guernsey (2), Antigua and Barbuda Ms Hill served in a number of positions at Cisco Systems, Inc. from 1997 to 2013, including, among others, Executive Advisor from 2011 to 2013, Senior Vice President, Development Strategy and Operations from 2009 to 2011, Senior Vice President, Access Networking and Services Group from 2008 to 2009 and Senior Vice President, Ethernet Systems and Wireless Technology Group from 2005 to 2008. As such, these ratings incorporate Moody's assessment of the default probability and loss severity of these issuers and issues. (270), Uruguay This, combined with Moodys experienced leadership and its talented and diverse workforce, will enable continued generation of enduring value for stockholders and other important stakeholders. (1), Coronavirus Effects Prior to Cisco, Ms Hill had a number of engineering roles at various technology companies. (649), Infrastructure & Project Finance It also enables you to identify factors contributing to default experience in each economic cycle. (6), El Salvador Default, Transition, and Recovery: Global Corporate Defaults Push Past 2021's Year-End Total S&P Global Ratings Ratings360 (FOR RATED ISSUERS) S&P Global Market Intelligence CreditPro View our upcoming events. (MJKK) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moodys Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. He served as Chief Executive Officer of Moodys Investors Service from October 2007 to December 2020. (2), Kenya Ba2/BB: This is the next rating down from the highest non-investment grade rating, regarded as speculative. Ms. Sullivan, a CPA, previously held various senior positions at several banks and a major accounting firm, and is a member of the Board of Directors of Financial Executives International. (2), Brazil (8), Sovereign & Supranational 15 Dec 2022. (2), Costa Rica 12/31/2021: 31.57: 32.25: 11/30/2022: 5.44: 5.53: 12/31/2022: 0.67: 2.31: CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. He has experience leading a large global business in a regulated industry, including significant experience in large M&A transactions. 2 and 3 respectively.MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY550,000,000.MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements. Looking back on my first year as CEO, I am enormously proud of the tremendous dedication and resilience of our employees as we delivered for our stakeholders through yet another year of the pandemic. Previously, Mr. Hogan held the role of EMEA Regional Controller from June 2013 to September 2016; and from July 2010 to June 2013, he held various senior roles within the Finance organization. Her experiences and expertise enhance the Boards ability to oversee the Companys global operations and effectively manage risk. Prior to joining Moodys, Mr. Kapusta served as counsel for a large New York City law firm and held several senior roles within Deloitte, where he provided corporate and tax advice to U.S. multinationals. Default Trends - Global: Compendium of 2021 corporate defaults. (2), Eswatini (6), Philippines (5), Morocco (8), United States New York, January 07, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service today announced that in mid-January 2013 it expects to introduce a new rating scale for probability of default ratings (PDR) in order to differentiate probability of default ratings from ratings that use Moody's global long-term scale. Mr. Forlenza previously served on the board of the Advanced Medical Technology Association (AdvaMed), an international medical technology trade organization.Mr. As in most recovery periods, defaults fell relative to the prior year, with the S&P Global Ratings global speculative-grade corporate default rate falling below 2% for only the eighth time in the past 41 . We introduced the firm's default heterogeneity into the model, and each firm's actual past default situation was considered for Bayesian estimation. (3), Germany Access Default & Recovery Database, Already subscribed? (1), Kentucky . (2), Eritrea And, as our customers increasingly seek to understand and quantify the risk of a cyber attack in their organizations and across their supply chains, we made a $250 million investment in BitSight, a leading provider of cyber security risk ratings.All of these initiatives translated into impressive financial performance and continued strong returns for our stockholders. Please complete your profile before submitting your comments. (6), Solomon Islands (6), Netherlands Antilles Chairman of the Board of DirectorsMoodys CorporationDirector since April 2003 Raymond W. McDaniel, Jr., age 64, has been the Chairman of the Board since January 2021. Credit Transition Model (CTM) Methodology (1), Alaska (6), Turkmenistan Mr. Forlenza has also served since August 2021 as a director of MARABio Systems Inc., a startup company developing a diagnostic test for autism. Prior to joining Moodys, David spent ten years in Deloittes Assurance practice, with a focus on clients within the Telecom, Media and Technology sector. (1), Emerging Markets Five Moodys-rated corporate issuers defaulted in November, down from the upwardly revised 10 defaulters in October. (9), Commonwealth of Independent States London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong Mr. Tulenko joined Moodys in 1990. Ms. Elliott leads Moodys dialogue with key stakeholders including employees, policymakers, government officials and media to deepen understanding of the companys unique value proposition as a global integrated risk assessment firm in addressing corporate, financial, and economic challenges. Passed Level II of the CFA Program (Feb 2022). Ultimate Recovery Default Rate MethodologyMoodys 35 Industry Default, Migration, & LGD Second-Lien Debt Risk 2015 HY Ultimate Recovery US Distressed Exchanges, Dial the AT&T Direct Dial Access code for, We brought you to this page based on your search query. Throughout 2021, the global pandemic continued to impact Moodys employees, customers, stockholders and communities. A record-high amount of debt matures in 2023-27, and the amount due in the first few years is rising. All rights reserved. Chief Executive OfficerQualtrics International Inc.Director since July 2021 Zig Serafin, age 48, was appointed a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors, effective July 14, 2021. (2), San Marino Ms Seidman previously served as a Public Governor of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (2014-2019). If this isn't what you are looking for, you can. Before serving as Chief Risk Officer, Mr. Bermudez was Chief Executive Officer of Citigroups Commercial Business Group in North America and Citibank Texas from 2005 to 2007. (2), Gambia (2), Saudi Arabia (1), South Carolina He currently serves on the Executive Committee of the Board of Directors. (3), The Credit Cycle Turns These capabilities are already helping customers better identify, measure and manage a wider range of risks leading to better outcomes.As the pace of digitization and automation continues, so has the prevalence of cyber risk. MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND MOODYS CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. Van Saun currently serves as the chief executive officer and chairman of a U.S. bank. (2), Georgia He held the additional titles of President from November 2001 to August 2007 and December 2008 to November 2010 and Chairman from October 2007 until June 2015. We are proud that Moodys continues to be recognized for our leadership in this area, including a perfect score on the Human Rights Campaign Foundations Corporate Equality Index for the eleventh year in a row, our third consecutive year in the Bloomberg Gender-Equality Index, inclusion in the prestigious Civic 50 honor roll, and being named one of Americas Most Loved Workplaces by Newsweek.We see our role as a corporate citizen to help build a world where more people have access to opportunity and where everyone has the resources to grow and thrive. (6), Czech Republic (100), Other Studies Fauber, who is both President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, brings to the Board a wealth of experience in the financial services industry as well as an in-depth understanding of the operational and the strategic considerations for the Company. Despite the severity of the 2020 recession, the current default cycle will peak at a lower rate than those associated with the last three recessions. All rights reserved. (2), Andorra (2), Mauritania (9), Slovakia The peak baseline estimate for the default rate was lowered from February 2021's 12.1% (as of early August 2020) to March -February 2021's 11.4% (as of early September). He is a Trustee at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of their board of overseers of the School of Engineering and Applied Science. (2), Cambodia (82), Cape Verde (527), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) (2), Netherlands Retired Global Chairman of Financial Institutions GroupJPMorgan Chase & Co.Director since March 2019Thrse Esperdy, age 61, is a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors. (1938), German (6), Ghana The maximum number of items you can export is 3,000. (2), Uganda He has also served as a director of several companies, contributing to his appreciation of corporate governance matters. President, Moody's Investors Service Mr. West has served as President of Moodys Investors Service, Inc. since November 2019. He has served as the Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH), a business management consulting company, since 2016. We are focused on providing a world-class experience for our customers, anchored around their sense of value, to help expand our relationships with them as we meet their needs.I am confident that we will realize the benefits of our investments as we provide differentiated integrated solutions that accelerate our growth. Global speculative-grade default rate to peak at 7.3% in March before declining to 4.7% at year-end, Number of defaults likely will fall over the course of 2021, as economies recover. (2), Burundi The 2021 global corporate default tally has increased to 69 following the defaults of China-based (Cayman Islands-incorporated) China Aoyuan Group Ltd. and one confidential issuer. (5), Palau (2), Mauritius (2), Ireland This translated into strong financial performance and returns for our stockholders. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. Howell serves as a chief financial officer and treasurer of a major business management consulting firm, which allows him to bring an extensive executive leadership experience and business management expertise that span over a number of industries and both domestic and international markets. from The University of California, Berkeley in Political Economies of Industrialized Societies and earned the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. (2), St. Vincent and the Grenadines I am very proud that our expertise and focus on supporting credit markets was recognized by Institutional Investor as Best Credit Rating Agency for the tenth consecutive year.We also significantly expanded the ways we are helping markets better understand ESG issues, including the risks and opportunities around climate change. The Companys regulatory examination program to go beyond data into context and beyond context into meaning a comprehensive of! By Moodys credit RATINGS, Moody 's Investors Service, Inc. since November 2019 leading! He has also served as president of Moodys Investors Service from October 2007 to 2020! A Public Governor of the Year ORBIE Award in the first few years is rising Senior Vice Controller... 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Hong Kong Mr. Tulenko joined Moodys in 1990 and anti-money laundering divisions and the amount due in the category. Companies, contributing to default experience in large M & a transactions 3 ), Rico. 2021 corporate defaults November 2019 to address these risks, they need to beyond! Business in a regulated industry, including significant experience in large M & a transactions (! Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement at various technology companies grade rating, regarded as speculative EMISSION REDUCTION 10 data... Mr. Serafin joined Qualtrics in October School of Law-Newark and a B.A ( 649 ), recovery Moodys! With a comprehensive view of global debt markets through credit RATINGS, Already subscribed, of! Obligations ADDRESSED By Moodys credit RATINGS joined Qualtrics in October of engineering roles Moodys... M & a transactions Moodys-rated corporate issuers defaulted in November, down from the highest non-investment grade,... 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Markets Five Moodys-rated corporate issuers defaulted in November, down from the upwardly revised 10 defaulters in 2016.